The Energy Narrative — Iran & Hormuz Crisis Briefing

Part 1 · Week 2

Iran & Strait of Hormuz
Crisis Timeline

Mon Mar 9 – Sun Mar 15

Expert assessments of the LNG supply hit range between 5% and 15% for the year, depending on the length of the Hormuz impairment. The debate about broader fossil fuel dependency, not the identity of the supplier, is reactivated.

Monday, March 9

Morgan Stanley declared the Qatar outage had erased the projected 2026 LNG surplus. Analysts warned LNG markets face a more severe long-term shock than oil as the first full trading week of the conflict began. European TTF surged 30%, Qatar pushed its North Field expansion start to 2027, and Oxford Economics mapped country-by-country inflation impacts.

There's Another Energy Market That May Get Hit Harder Than Oil by Strait of Hormuz Closure CNBC The Hormuz closure's long-term impact may be more severe for LNG than oil, because Qatar's entire output flows through one facility complex at Ras Laffan, and Rapidan Energy estimates it will take weeks, not days, to resume operations even after hostilities end.
Tracking LNG Flows as Key Global Gas Prices Go Haywire Reuters Asia LNG forwards reached approximately $12.95/MMBtu (up 53% from 2025) and European TTF approximately $12.41/MMBtu (up 49%), with US exporters operating at 200%+ profit margins and Australia's output over 95% committed to contracted Asian buyers, offering virtually no incremental spot relief.
Qatar LNG Outage Erases 2026 Supply Surplus, Morgan Stanley Says Bloomberg Morgan Stanley said the Qatar outage has removed most of the forecast 6-million-tonne 2026 LNG surplus, warning an outage beyond one month would produce an outright deficit and could push prices above $30/MMBtu.
Qatar Said to Push LNG Expansion to 2027 After Iran Drone Attack Bloomberg North Field East, with 32 mtpa of new capacity, is now targeting first exports in early 2027 at the earliest, removing what was the single largest source of new LNG supply expected this decade.
European Gas Prices Surge 30% as Middle East War Roils Markets Bloomberg TTF jumped as much as 30% to approximately €60/MWh as Europe emerged from winter with depleted storage; Goldman Sachs raised its Q2 gas forecast from €45 to €63/MWh, and QatarEnergy notified Italian and Polish buyers of force majeure.
Compounding Errors and Narrow Self-Interest Threaten Global Fuel Crisis Reuters The Hormuz closure is cutting approximately 18 million bpd of crude and products, with refined product prices surging faster than crude (jet fuel hit a record $225.44/bbl on March 4) and China halting refined product exports in a cascade of protectionist measures.
Iran War Boosts Oil Price, but Oil Major Shares Are Stuck on the Sidelines Reuters Crude rose over 40% since the war began but the iShares Global Energy ETF gained only approximately 2%, with deferred futures contracts priced well below spot, indicating traders view the disruption as temporary. US shale producers outperformed integrated majors.
Kharg Island: Iran's Oil Lifeline That Donald Trump Has Left Untouched FT Kharg Island handles 9 of every 10 barrels of Iran's oil exports and remains operational during the conflict; the US and Israel have avoided striking it to prevent further oil price spikes, preserve the post-war Iranian economy, and maintain relations with China.
Which Leading Economies Will Pay the Biggest Price for the Iran War? FT Oxford Economics found Italy's Q4 inflation would be boosted by over 1 percentage point, the eurozone and UK by 0.5+ points, and the US by only 0.2 points. The US is insulated as a net energy exporter since 2020, while China can draw on stockpiles and Russian imports.
We May Not Be Running Out of Gas but We Still Need a Serious Strategic Gas Reserve Guardian While 75% of Great Britain's gas comes from the North Sea and Norwegian pipeline, the UK's approximately two days of gas storage is untenable because price exposure to global LNG markets transmits crisis-level costs regardless of physical supply source.

Tuesday, March 10

India issued emergency gas rationing under the Essential Commodities Act. Russia confirmed it would redirect LNG to Asian buyers without waiting for the EU's April ban. LNG carriers began switching mid-voyage from Europe to Asia. Vietnam and Thailand ordered nationwide work-from-home measures. Oil fell ~25% from intraday highs on Trump's remarks that the conflict is ending, before recovering on escalation.

Key Development

Russia Decides to Redirect Some LNG Now Supplied to Europe to Other Markets

Interfax · Mar 10, 2026

Deputy PM Novak announced that Russia will redirect part of its European-bound LNG to Asia-Pacific buyers, potentially China, India, the Philippines, and Thailand, without waiting for the EU's import ban taking effect in April 2026. The move accelerates a structural rerouting of Russian LNG ahead of the EU embargo timeline, tightening European supply further while giving Moscow a head start on locking in long-term Asian contracts from Yamal LNG's approximately 20–22 mtpa output.

#RussianLNG #SupplyDiversion

India Defines 4 Priority Sectors for Using Natural Gas Amid Iran-US War NDTV India invoked the Essential Commodities Act to establish a four-tier gas rationing system: 100% supply to household PNG, CNG transport, and LPG production; 70% to fertiliser; 80% to industrial users. The country's first wartime gas allocation framework, confirming a 47.4 Mmscmd supply hit.
Gulf Oil Giants Deepen Cuts as Hormuz Halt Chokes Exports Bloomberg Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait collectively cut 6.7 million bpd, with Iraq cutting deepest at approximately 60% of output; Aramco's CEO called it the biggest crisis the region's oil and gas industry has faced.
Trump Hints at Early End to Iran War, Easing Oil-Shock Concerns Bloomberg Hegseth declared the "most intense" day of strikes and vowed to fight until Iran is "totally and decisively defeated," while Trump said the war could end "very soon." Brent swung from approximately $120 to approximately $91 as markets attempted to price political signalling against physical disruption.
Europe and Asia Battle for LNG as Iran War Chokes Supply FT Ship tracking showed LNG carriers switching course mid-voyage from Europe to Asia; Taiwan sourced over 30% of its gas from Qatar in 2025, and European buyers who had delayed signing long-term contracts expecting a glut now face a structural disadvantage as gas hit €69.50/MWh and Asian JKM reached $24.80/MMBtu.
LNG Canada Ramps Up Output as Iran War Threatens Global Gas Supplies Reuters Shell-led LNG Canada exported five cargoes in the first 11 days of March, all to Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, with the plant appearing to operate near its full 14 mtpa capacity, making it the first major North American terminal with direct Pacific access.
Vietnam Urges People to Work From Home to Save Fuel as Iran War Disrupts Supplies Reuters Vietnam's trade ministry told businesses to encourage WFH, with gasoline up 32%, diesel up 56%, and kerosene up 80% since the war began; import tariffs on fuels were removed until end of April.
Thailand Orders Bureaucrats to Use Stairs and Work From Home in Energy Saving Drive Reuters Thailand, which meets nearly 68% of energy needs from natural gas, ordered civil servants to work from home, set AC to 26–27°C, and halted energy exports to all countries except Laos and Myanmar.

Wednesday, March 11

Iran confirmed it had laid approximately 12 mines in the Strait and warned of $200 oil. The IEA launched the largest-ever coordinated oil reserve release. The Economist modelled a scenario where global LNG capacity is virtually tapped out. US gasoline rose for an 11th consecutive day. The EU began discussing gas price caps, and sulphur, helium, and fertiliser supply chains buckled alongside oil and gas.

Iran Tells World to Get Ready for Oil at $200 a Barrel as It Fires on Merchant Ships Reuters Three merchant ships were hit in Gulf waters as Iran's military warned of $200/bbl oil; Trump authorised 172 million barrels from the US SPR, with 14 merchant ships hit since the war began, shifting the crisis from a chokepoint blockade to an undeclared maritime war.
Iran Has Laid About a Dozen Mines in Strait of Hormuz, Sources Say Reuters Two sources confirmed approximately 12 mines deployed in the Strait, with most locations known; the US has targeted 16 mine-laying vessels but has not provided commercial escorts. Naval mines are cheap to lay and expensive to clear, and their presence will delay commercial reopening well beyond any ceasefire.
IEA Member Countries to Carry Out Largest Ever Oil Stock Release IEA The IEA's 32 member countries unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the largest coordinated drawdown in the agency's history, after Hormuz flows fell to less than 10% of pre-conflict levels. The unprecedented scale signals governments do not expect a swift resolution.
Liquefied Natural Gas: the Overlooked Economic Chokepoint The Economist Modelling four Qatar shutdown scenarios: Rystad estimates a 4.3% output drop at 15 days extending to 14%+ at one month, with Asian inventories critically low (India 5–6 days, Taiwan 11 days) and Russia identified as the only theoretical large-scale substitute.
Europe Explores Capping Natural Gas Prices FT Von der Leyen told the European Parliament the EU is considering gas price caps or subsidies, though the 2022 TTF cap of €180/MWh was never triggered; Greece imposed fuel and supermarket margin caps, and Italy renewed calls to suspend the ETS.
U.S. Gas Prices Jump for 11th Straight Day, and Oil Pushes Higher NYT US gasoline reached $3.58/gallon (up 20% since the war began) and diesel hit $4.83 (up 28%); Brent settled at $91.98/bbl with Hormuz traffic effectively halted and the US military engaging 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels.
Iran War Shatters Trump's Case for Fossil Fuels Reuters The Hormuz crisis directly undermines the "energy dominance" narrative by exposing supply fragility inherent in fossil-fuel dependence, concluding the energy security imperative may paradoxically accelerate the diversification the administration has sought to slow.
Lloyd's of London Says It Will Still Insure 'Basically Anyone' in the Gulf FT Insurance prices for Hormuz transit have risen 12-fold; the US announced a $20 billion DFC reinsurance backstop. Lloyd's said the slowdown is a crew safety issue, not insurance availability, meaning reopening is a security question, not a financial one.
Gulf Disruption Chokes Sulphur Flows Supporting Swaths of Global Industry FT Sulphur prices in China rose 15% to a record ¥4,650/tonne; the Gulf accounts for 45% of global sulphur exports, with cascading impacts on fertiliser, semiconductor manufacturing, and copper leaching. Over 44,000 companies have had shipments affected.
The Economic Consequences of War With Iran FT Capital Economics scenarios: a short war costs approximately 1.4% of global oil and LNG exports; a three-month war with lasting damage cuts 8–9%, pushes oil to $150/bbl, and sends EU gas to €120/MWh.
Canada's Big LNG Offer for India's Rising Energy Demand NDTV Canadian PM Carney positioned Canada as an "energy superpower" offering LNG, crude, uranium, and critical minerals to India, whose energy demand is projected to double by 2040 and which currently sources approximately 60% of its LNG from the Middle East.

Thursday, March 12

Tankers were attacked off Iraq. Iran's new supreme leader declared Hormuz will stay shut. The Economist labelled the war "an attack on the world economy." Saudi Arabia's Bahri booked supertankers for a Red Sea workaround at record rates. The US approved additional LNG exports from Plaquemines, and a US-loaded cargo switched destination to China, potentially the first US–China LNG delivery in over a year.

An Attack on the World Economy The Economist The Iran war has permanently altered energy markets: oil peaked near $120/bbl, the IEA deployed a record 400-million-barrel reserve release, and Qatar's LNG outage removed roughly 20% of global supply, warning of a new era of energy insecurity.
Iran War Causes Biggest-Ever Oil Market Disruption, IEA Says Bloomberg The IEA said the war will slash global oil supply by 8 million bpd in March (approximately 250 million barrels total), with Hormuz flows down over 90%, exceeding the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the 1979 Iranian revolution in scale.
Iran Leader Says Hormuz to Stay Shut, Trump Shrugs Off Oil Bloomberg New supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei's first public statement declared Hormuz should remain closed and new fronts were under consideration; Trump responded that stopping Iran's nuclear programme matters more than oil costs. The first six days of war cost the US over $11.3 billion.
Oil Tankers Attacked Off Iraq as Middle East Crisis Worsens Bloomberg Two tankers were hit in Iraqi waters, forcing Iraq to suspend terminal operations; S&P Global excluded Gulf-loading crude grades from its Dubai benchmark, meaning the pricing mechanism for a substantial share of global crude trade has been officially decoupled from physical Gulf supply.
Saudi Oil Tanker Giant Snaps Up Ships for Hormuz Workaround Bloomberg Bahri booked at least six VLCCs to load from the Red Sea port of Yanbu at 450 Worldscale points (approximately $450,000/day versus pre-war records never above $300,000/day), with at least 24 supertankers en route; the East-West pipeline can handle 7 million bpd but 2 million feeds domestic refineries.
India in Talks With Iran to Secure Safe Passage for Tankers Bloomberg India is negotiating safe passage for more than 20 stranded tankers (10 carrying LPG, 5 carrying crude), with some ships having transited with AIS transponders off on March 6 and 9, suggesting India may be pursuing bilateral deals to circumvent the blockade.
Iran War Is Good for America's Natural Gas Industry Bloomberg Qatar's 30-year unbroken LNG delivery record is now broken; Taiwan plans to raise US LNG imports to 20% of need by 2029, Bangladesh is exploring additional US purchases, and a US-loaded LNG tanker listed Tianjin as its destination, potentially the first US–China delivery since February 2025.
Asia LNG Scramble Pulls Cargoes From Europe; One US Shipment Switches Destination to China Reuters At least three LNG tankers switched from European to Asian destinations, including a Plaquemines LNG cargo redirected from Belgium to Tianjin at $20–25/MMBtu, with the price premium overriding geopolitical barriers that had frozen US–China LNG trade for over a year.
Is Europe's Gas Demand Recovery Derailed or Just Dented by Iran Crisis? Reuters European gas-fired power generation dropped roughly one-third in March, with storage at approximately 27% (the lowest for the season since 2022) and injection needs of approximately 6.9 bcf/day through November, about two large LNG tankers per day.
Helium Prices Soar as Qatar LNG Halt Exposes Fragile Supply Chain Reuters Helium spot prices doubled since the crisis began; Qatar produces roughly one-third of global supply as a byproduct of LNG processing. A 60–90 day disruption could push prices 25–50% higher; semiconductor fabrication and MRI systems are being prioritised in allocation.
Qatar Rejects Attempts to 'Drive Wedge' With US Over Gas Pause Al Jazeera Qatar denied Israeli media claims its LNG halt was politically motivated, blaming Iran's drone strikes on Ras Laffan. The diplomatic pushback is significant because Qatar's relationship with Washington underpins billions in US LNG co-investment at the North Field expansion.
Force Majeure Forces Market Shifts in European LNG Market S&P Global QatarEnergy's force majeure triggered downstream notices to Edison and Orlen; the LNG-TTF spread has narrowed to the point where many regasification slots are uneconomic. US plants are running at 121–137% utilisation with limited room to ramp, and at least seven cargoes have diverted from Europe to Asia since February 28.
Why the Iran War Hurts Trump's Plans to Expand LNG E&E News The conflict has shut 20% of global LNG supply and raised questions about seaborne gas reliability, potentially undermining buyer willingness to sign the long-term contracts needed to finance new US projects, even as the relative security of US supply becomes a selling point.

Friday, March 13

JPMorgan warned supply cuts could approach 12 million bpd. The US removed some Russian oil sanctions and approved additional LNG exports from Plaquemines. India told 333 million LPG-dependent households to switch to piped gas. Iran's shadow fleet continued delivering crude to China via Malaysian waters. Gulf states' cumulative revenue losses reached $15 billion.

Trump Removes Sanctions on Russia to Help Oil Flow Amid Iran Conflict NYT Treasury issued temporary exemptions (until April 11) on Russian oil at sea; Bessent estimates this could release hundreds of millions of barrels. Approximately 130 million barrels of Russian crude are currently at sea per Kpler. The move effectively reverses a core sanctions pillar to manage a supply shock partly of Washington's own making.
Energy Department Approves Immediate Additional LNG Exports from Plaquemines LNG Energy.gov Energy Secretary Wright authorised an immediate 13% increase in exports from Venture Global's Plaquemines terminal, an additional 0.45 Bcf/d to non-FTA countries. The first concrete US policy response on LNG supply, though the incremental volumes are modest relative to the approximately 5.8 million tonnes per month of Middle Eastern LNG lost.
Wall Street Warns Iran War Will Trigger Prolonged Energy Crisis FT JPMorgan expects supply cuts to approach 12 million bpd; RBC forecasts Brent could exceed $128; Goldman estimates Hormuz flows have fallen to 600,000 bpd. The Wall Street consensus is converging on a prolonged disruption scenario, with the decision to spare Kharg Island the last remaining check on further price escalation.
Gulf States Lose $15bn in Energy Revenues Since Start of War FT Kpler estimates Hormuz typically carries approximately $1.2 billion/day in crude, products, and LNG; total losses reached $15.1 billion since February 28 with at least $10.7 billion in cargoes stranded inside the strait. Iraq is most exposed: oil is 90% of government revenue.
The Illicit Iranian Oil Hiding in Plain Sight FT Approximately 1.2 million bpd of Iranian crude reached China last year via Malaysian ship-to-ship transfers (13% of China's imports); 679 transfers observed in Malaysian waters in 2024 (up from 280 in 2023), but only 4 VLCCs have left Hormuz since the war began.
U.S. Eases Some Russian Oil Sanctions but Crude Prices Stay High BNN Bloomberg The 30-day sanctions waiver on Russian oil follows an earlier India-specific reprieve; the temporary easing underscores the contradiction in US policy. The Iran war has handed Russia pricing power and leverage that sanctions were designed to eliminate.
India Tells LPG Users to Switch to Piped Gas Wherever Possible Reuters India's 333 million LPG-dependent households were directed to switch to piped gas; daily LPG booking requests surged to 7.6 million from 5.5 million on March 1, and 90% of LPG imports come from the Middle East. Domestic production is up 30% since March 5, but the piped network covers a fraction of the population.
Iran War Risks Global Food Shock as Fertiliser Supplies Cut FT Approximately half of 2.1 million tonnes of urea normally loaded for export in the past two weeks has been disrupted; QAFCO shut its 5.6 mtpa urea plant and India ordered fertiliser manufacturers to cut gas consumption to approximately 70%. Urea prices are up over 40%, threatening crop yields across South and Southeast Asia.

Saturday, March 14

Japan formally asked Australia to boost LNG output. Jefferies and Rystad modelled a $63 billion windfall for US oil producers at $100/bbl crude. Energy prices became the primary driver of bond, currency, and equity markets globally.

Japan Industry Ministry Asks Australia to Boost LNG Output Amid Iran Crisis Reuters Japan's industry minister formally requested increased Australian LNG production; Japan sources approximately 40% of its LNG from Australia and roughly 11% from the now-disrupted Middle East. Scarborough and Barossa fields were cited as potential sources, though both remain in development.
US Oil Groups in Line for $63bn Windfall From Gulf War Disruption FT Jefferies and Rystad modelled a $63.4 billion windfall for US producers if crude averages $100/bbl in 2026, with shale-focused firms benefiting most. The asymmetry (US producers profiting while Gulf allies bear revenue losses) adds a geopolitical dimension to the war's economic fallout.
Oil Prices in the Driving Seat as Energy Shock Upends Global Markets FT Energy prices are driving bond, currency, and equity markets globally; the Bank of England is now expected to raise rates and the dollar has revived as the US is seen as a relative winner. The South African rand and South Korean won are among the worst-performing currencies.

Sunday, March 15

Shell declared force majeure on Qatari-sourced LNG. Israeli strikes on Tehran oil storage produced toxic "black rain" over a city of nearly 10 million. US Henry Hub prices remained flat, underscoring the structural ceiling on America's ability to fill the gap.

Shell Declares Force Majeure on LNG Contracts From Qatar Al Jazeera Shell, the world's largest LNG trader, declared force majeure on Qatari LNG cargoes it resells globally, following QatarEnergy's own declaration and the Ras Laffan production halt (77 mtpa capacity); TotalEnergies and Omani trader OQ have also notified downstream buyers, confirming the disruption is propagating through intermediary trading chains.
What to Know About 'Black Rain' That Fell in Iran After Strikes on Oil Reserves ABC News Israeli strikes on four major Tehran oil storage facilities triggered massive fires producing toxic "black rain," oily, acid precipitation containing hydrocarbons, sulphur dioxide, heavy metals, and particulate matter. The WHO warned of serious health risks and scientists said groundwater contamination could persist long after the fires.
Trump Backing Co-Founder Will Profit From Replacing Qatari LNG Forbes US LNG producers, particularly Cheniere and Venture Global, are positioned for windfall profits as Qatar's halt removes roughly 20% of global supply; analysts estimate up to $870 million in additional weekly profits, potentially rising to $20 billion per month if supply isn't resumed by summer. US production is already at maximum capacity.
U.S. Natural Gas Prices Stay Calm Despite Global LNG Crisis OilPrice.com US Henry Hub futures remained in the $3.10–$3.40/MMBtu range as export terminals are already at full capacity; the EIA forecasts Henry Hub averaging $3.80 in 2026. The price insulation confirms the structural disconnect: even with record LNG export flows, new capacity from Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage 3 would replace only approximately 20% of lost Qatari volumes.

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